Goalies and Rebounds

Can goalies affect a team’s shot suppression? After digging into some rebound statistics on Corsica.Hockey, I found that some goalies have more rebounds that turn into shots than others. For instance, in the last 3 years, the worst goalie in allowing straight rebounds that turn into shots is Semyon Varlamov, with 2.39 shots that come from rebounds per 60 minutes. On the other hand, Tuukka Rask allows the least amount of rebounds that turn into shots, 1.34 per 60 minutes.

Now, of course, some goalies face more shots than other goalies, ranging from ~25 shots against per 60 minutes (Jonathan Quick)  to ~33 shots against per 60 minutes (James Reimer). If we take the rebound shots against, and divide it by the amount of shots against, we get the percentage of shots in which that individual goalie would be responsible for. You can find the full list of these goalies in this Google sheets document.

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As you can see here, allowing more rebounds doesn’t seem to affect the high-danger SV% of goalies. However, allowing more rebounds, over time will likely result in more goals against. If you’re in middle of the pack tier of goalies, take Craig Anderson for example, who allows 2.04 rebounds that result in shots against, which you can assume most would be high-danger shots, and apply it over a 20 game scale, you would get around 40.8 shots against in that span. Apply his HDSV% to that number (which is 79.1% over the past 3 years), and theoretically, he would have allowed approximately 8 goals due to rebounds. 

When you get into the realm of goalies who are the worst at controlling rebounds, and are responsible for 7+% of shots against such as Cam Ward, Semyon Varlamov, and Carey Price, you better hope that they can save a lot of the high danger shots, Carey Price sure can, he has the best HDSV% in this sample. Unfortunately for Cam Ward, he has the 3rd worst HDSV% of these goalies, so not only is he bad at making sure rebounds don’t get loose, he is also bad at saving the shots that result because of the rebounds.

Only 3 goalies were responsible for >5% of their teams shot against, Tuukka Rask, Cory Schneider, and Chad Johnson. Those are the 3 goalies I would consider to be “elite” at controlling rebounds. 4 goalies were responsible for <7.4% of their team’s shots against, Cam Ward, Carey Price, Semyon Varlamov, and Kari Lehtonen I would consider to be “poor” at controlling rebounds.

 

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