Enroth Mega Hot Take

In a way, Enroth’s career is stuck in a positive feedback loop. For the most part, he’s only been able to sign with teams that, for one reason or another, desperately needed goalie help. And those same teams haven’t typically been home to an amazing defensive core. Despite posting a positive adjGSAA/60 in the majority of his seasons (only his rookie year and 2014-15 were negative results), Enroth only has a career save percentage of .911, which is below league average for the same time period. There’s no doubt about it: Enroth represents a market inefficiency in regard to goalies, because of the way past his past teams have affected his unadjusted save percentage. Admittedly, the most games he ever played in a season occurred in the year where he had his worst adjGSAA/60. However, even in that season he had a positive adjFenwick save percentage, suggesting that his results were probably within the margin of error when it comes to evaluating goaltenders. I think it’s fair to say that methods for evaluating goalies are still relatively primitive; although they are rapidly improving, especially as a result of Corsica now generating results for danger tiers for shots against.

Here are some results for recent backup signings. Just take note that they are sorted by age, and not season. I like this method because it’s a little easier to visualize the career arc of a given goalie. Green is Enroth, purple is Khudobin, and the other two goalies had enough room on the chart to fit their labels:
Screen Shot 2016-08-22 at 11.44.36 AM.png

And so, despite some performances that should have made him, at the very least, a desirable backup goaltender on July 1st, the diminutive Enroth managed to remain unsigned until late august. Interestingly enough, I don’t think the Leafs Andersen can be said to be without a doubt, definitively better than Enroth. In fact, I think Toronto could be the source of yet another goalie controversy, despite moving on from both Reimer and Bernier. Enroth excels at stopping high danger shots, but has struggled with low and medium danger shots. This is the opposite of the results that Andersen has had from 2013-2016: medium danger shots are where he excels, while struggling with high danger and low danger shots. I think, then, Babcock’s system might dictate how the starts are delegated. If the Leafs are able to effectively limit high danger shots, Andersen is probably going to be the guy, but it wouldn’t be surprising to see Enroth have some success with the Leafs as well. Relatively speaking, it would benefit Enroth if the Leafs had a more porous defense in 2016-2017.  

Data courtesy of Corsica.Hockey and @imfleming16

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